Steve Bannon asked me to step you through it. I’ll do that and tell you how this is validated using independent methods and also why VAERS was deliberately set up to make all vaccines look safe.
URF = VAERS underreporting factor. This is the ratio (# events that actually happen/# events reported in VAERS). So if VAERS has 10 events and the URF=41, then it means 410 events are likely to have happened, but only 10 events were reported to VAERS.
This is the data we use in our computation:
- Known rate of anaphylaxis from JAMA paper published on March 8, 2021: 2.47 per 10,000 doses (A)
- Number of people who had at least one dose before April 1: 97.5M (see below) (B)
- Number of anaphylaxis cases on dose 1 in VAERS before April 1: (see below) (C)
- Today’s number of US deaths in VAERS: 9623 (Jan 5, 2021) (D)
- Largest number of deaths reported to VAERS in prior years: 223 (in 1994) (E). You can see this on the same red box page on OpenVAERS by mousing over each year.
- Number of deaths in VAERS in the US that mention COVID19 as a symptom: 2087 (F)
To compute the underreporting factor (URF), we solve the equation A=(C*URF)/B. This just says that “the rate in the clinical trial’ = “the rate in VAERS” (adjusted by the URF.
This means URF=(A*B)/C = 2.47/10000 * 97500000/583 = 41.3
To compute the excess deaths, we use deaths = (D-2*E)*URF = (9623-2*223)*41.3 = 379,010. The reason we took out 2*E is that we are looking for excess deaths and since people are seen twice, it’s conservative to double the total number of deaths in a previous year.
While it is possible that some of these 379K excess deaths could have been caused by COVID, doctors are very unlikely to report a COVID death in VAERS since everyone agrees that the vaccines do not cause COVID. Doctors don’t want to pollute the VAERS database with unrelated events and most doctors don’t want to report to VAERS because they don’t want to make the vaccines look dangerous: doing so would make them look bad for recommending the vaccine to their patients.
But to be conservative, anytime COVID19 is mentioned in the symptom field, let’s assume that the patient really died from COVID rather than “with” COVID19. This removes F*URF = 2,087 deaths * 41.3 = 86,193.
We are left with an estimated 292,817 deaths caused by the vaccine using VAERS.
Using 12 other methods, we estimate a death toll of 150,000 or more.
Therefore, 150,000 is a high confidence estimate whereas 300,000 is likely closer to the actual number.
The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) is the official system used by the US government to track adverse events from all vaccines. Many people are familiar with the V-Safe program since they ask you to enroll when you get the vaccine. If you report an adverse event in V-Safe, you’ll get a call from HHS and they’ll tell you to report that adverse event to VAERS. Many people don’t do that, or don’t know about VAERS or V-Safe, so VAERS is always underreported.
According to a paper analyzing this published in 2015 in a peer reviewed journal, the underreporting is by a factor from 9.52 to 95.5 times. See Why won’t the CDC or FDA reveal the VAERS URF? for more details on this.
Understanding the VAERS URF
Computing the underreporting factor (URF) is thus crucial to understanding the actual number of events that are happening.
Using methodology approved by the CDC and data from VAERS and a paper published in one of the world’s top medical journals, we can compute an estimate of the underreporting factor (URF) of 41 for the most serious/obvious events reported to VAERS. I’ll step through the process of how I computed the value of 41 in detail later in this article.
The URF of 41 is a minimum URF; the URF for “less obvious” events (including death) is always larger than this value. So for example, if you had menstrual problems, peripheral neuropathy, or your cancer got worse after the jab, the URF for that event might be 100 or more.
For example, President Biden had peripheral neuropathy after his booster shot and that event was never reported to VAERS because his expert physicians didn’t realize that it is a very common side-effect of the vaccine.
Therefore, 41 is a “best case” number because it is based on anaphylaxis rates shortly after vaccination which are required by law to be 100% reported to the VAERS system. It doesn’t get any more “clear cut” than that.
What this means in practice is that if you see a number in VAERS such as 9,623 reported deaths, you have to multiply that number by the estimated URF (41 in our case) to get a lower-bound estimate of the actual number of deaths, in this case 394,543. However, not all those deaths were caused by the vaccine which I’ll explain shortly. But that’s how the URF works.
In general, it’s very simple:
Actual # of events = (# from VAERS) * URF
How CDC scientist Dr. John Su deliberately misleads everyone
The top expert on VAERS at the CDC is Dr. John Su. Dr. Su deliberately misleads the outside committees of the FDA and CDC by never talking about the URF at all. This allows him to report rates of adverse events that are 41 times or more lower than the true rates.
I’ve written about Dr. Su extensively:
Furthermore, despite repeated requests, the FDA and CDC refuse to compute the URF which means it is impossible for anyone to compute an accurate risk-benefit analysis using the government calculated URF. They know exactly what is going on. It is deliberate fraud. This is why they don’t want to talk to me and will never debate me. An open debate would be their worst nightmare.
Because there is no URF computation from the CDC, experts like Dr. Toby Rogers use a value of 41 for the URF in order to calculate the risk-benefit for injecting kids 5 to 11. His conclusion: “For every one child saved by the shot, another 117 would be killed by the shot.” In other words, we kill 117 for every child we might save.
In short, by ignoring the URF, the CDC is deliberately deceiving the public; it allows the CDC to report numbers which are significantly lower than they really are, making the vaccines appear to be much safer than they really are.
So, for example, the rates of myocarditis they report are, in actuality, likely to be 50 times or more higher than they tell you. This explains how we can see myocarditis rates as high as 1 case for every 95 boys.
Why the huge spike in adverse events including death? Is it just overreporting?
Now let’s look at the numbers from Openvars.com which is a consumer-friendly website for looking at the VAERS data. The red-box summary page for domestic events (slide the slider at the top to the right) shows 9,623 deaths of Americans: